$SPCXNASDAQSpace Exploration Technologies Corp.Initiation · Post-IPO · Q2 2026 · as of 2026-08-06 · reported 2026-08-04

The largest IPO in history is already below its offer price eight weeks in, and today the float quadruples.

Priced at $135 on June 11, SpaceX raised roughly $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, ran past $225 within days, and closed at $108.27 the night before a lockup expiry that can more than quadruple its tradable float. In between came a first earnings print that beat on every line and still cost the stock 14% in a day, because the market stopped grading the growth and started grading $18.4 billion of quarterly capex.

Market Cap

$1.43T

priced at $1.75T in the June IPO

Off the High

-52%

touched $225.64 in week one

Revenue Growth

+92% YoY

$7.81B in the first public print

Lockup Expiry

Today

up to ~20% of shares become eligible Aug 6

01 — The Print

Q2 2026 earnings, decoded

SpaceX's first print as a public company beat every estimate on the page and still cost the stock 14%, because the capex line stole the headline. Click a row for the read.

Revenue

$7.81B

+92% YoY

vs $4.07B a year ago; beat the street by nearly $1B

EPS (diluted)

-$0.09

beat -$0.26 est.

net loss narrowed to $541M from $1.01B

Adjusted EBITDA

$3.5B

+191% YoY

vs ~$2.0B expected; $1.2B a year ago

Capex

$18.4B

2.4x revenue

$15.8B of it AI infrastructure; street modeled ~$13B

Starlink Subscribers

12M

+1.7M net adds

doubled YoY; best quarter to date

Follow every dollar — the income statement, as a flow

Ribbon width scales with dollars. Slate = segments, green = profit, red = costs.

Line by line — with the why

Bars scaled to revenue. Click a row for the read.

Up 92% YoY; Connectivity, AI and Space each beat the street's segment estimate

Implied as revenue minus adjusted EBITDA; excludes depreciation, stock comp and one-time items

Below this line, depreciation on the AI build-out and interest turn $3.5B of EBITDA into a $541M net loss (-$0.09 a share)

Guidance

2026 Exit Run-Rate (Musk)$100B annualized revenuestreet models $39.1B for FY2026

Cloud Contracts$14.1B total value; $6.7B ramps from October

Compute Capacity2 GW by year-end1.4 GW today

2030 Ambition$1T annual revenue

Balance sheet

Cash & Securities~$100B

Total Debt & Obligations$37B

Contracted Backlog$47.5B

H1 2026 Capex$28B

02 — The Ecosystem

Who Space buys from & sells to

SpaceX builds almost everything itself, so the supplier map is one giant name, while the customer list runs from NASA to Anthropic. Click any node.

The value chain, mapped

Hover or tap a node to light up its links

Tap a ticker — and I'll tell you exactly why it rises (or doesn't) with $SPCX.

Flow weight is a subjective 1-10 read of how much each relationship moves SpaceX's P&L, not a revenue rank. The biggest customer bloc of all, 12 million Starlink subscribers, has no ticker, and extreme vertical integration is why the supplier column is nearly empty.

↑ SPCX BUYS FROM

SPCX SELLS TO ↓

Space pure-plays that trade with SPCX

RKLB Rocket LabASTS AST SpaceMobileLUNR Intuitive Machines

The AI compute complex

NVDA NvidiaCRWV CoreWeaveORCL Oracle

03 — The Debate

Bull, base & bear case

Bull and bear both concede the 92% growth and the $100 billion of cash. The fight is over what a company that spends $18 billion a quarter may cost, and today's unlock picks the venue. Tap a case.

“You are buying the only company where the rocket, the telecom and the data center share one balance sheet.”

Three S-curves, one launchpad

Starlink compounds Twelve million subscribers doubling year over year, a record 1.7 million net adds in Q2, and management sizing the incumbent telecom pool at roughly $600B a year.
AI is ramping now, not someday $2.56B of quarterly AI revenue grew 247% YoY, $14.1B of cloud contracts are signed with $6.7B ramping from October, and compute capacity goes from 1.4 GW to a targeted 2 GW by year-end.
Starship breaks the cost curve Musk calls the heat shield problem solved, Flight 14 attempts an upper-stage catch this month while deploying V3 Starlink satellites, and daily flights are the stated ambition.
The promise has a number Management guided to a $100B annualized revenue run-rate by December; even the street's $73B for 2027 makes today's price about 19.5x forward sales for 87% expected growth.

BULL CASE · 12-MO TARGET

$300

≈ +177% vs $108

Assumes the October cloud ramp and Starlink net adds keep the beats coming and the market pays Morgan Stanley's roughly $4T. Matches the $300 Morgan Stanley target; the $228.95 street average sits between this and the base case.

SUBJECTIVE ODDS

~25%

The three targets, side by side

12-month targets vs the $108.27 close. The spread tells you how two-sided this is.

BULL

$300

BASE

$150

BEAR

$70

Today ≈ $108.27

04 — Build Your Own

Price-target calculator

Pick a 2027 adjusted EPS and the multiple you would pay for it. The default $0.90 is the street consensus; everything else is conviction.

Implied value = EPS × P/E multiple

Annualized EPS you believe in$0.9P/E multiple you'd pay120.0×

IMPLIED SHARE PRICE

$108

≈ +0% vs $108

Price target = 2027 EPS × P/E. The defaults ($0.90 of consensus 2027 adjusted EPS at 120x) roughly reproduce today's $108 share price, which is the honest way of saying SPCX is not valued on near-term earnings. The slider ends are this brief's bear and bull EPS scenarios rather than published estimates, and a triple-digit multiple here is really a price on Starship, Starlink and the 2030 revenue ambition.

05 — The Street

What Wall Street says

Thirty-five analysts picked up coverage inside eight weeks, and the high target is nearly thirteen times the low; the sell-side agrees only that the stock should not be here.

Buy

35 analysts · as of 2026-08-05

Strong Buy

Buy

Hold

Sell

Strong Sell

HIGH TARGET

Raymond James (street high, StockAnalysis survey) · 2026-08-05

$800

AVERAGE TARGET

StockAnalysis consensus survey · 2026-08-05

$228.95

LOW TARGET

Street low, StockAnalysis survey · 2026-08-05

$62

The average target sits 111% above the stock, but the $738 gap between Raymond James at $800 (a $10.5T company) and the $62 low says the sell-side is not debating a price, it is debating what SpaceX is.

06 — The Tape

Technical picture

Thirty-seven sessions of public life, one full round trip: this is the entire chart, and it is already eventful.

Price, moving averages & momentum

Daily close with the 50- and 200-day moving averages above, RSI(14) below.

LAST CLOSE

$108.27

2026-08-05

52-WK HIGH

$211.39

2026-06-16

52-WK LOW

$108.27

2026-08-05

50-DMA

n/a

needs more history

200-DMA

n/a

needs more history

RSI (14)

neutral

THE READ

SPCX opened at $150 against a $135 IPO price, closed its first day at $160.95, and touched $225.64 inside four sessions before giving all of it back in a six-week slide. The first earnings print on August 4 drew a 9% rally into the close, then a 13.6% collapse to $108.27 the next day, with an all-time intraday low of $104.83 the same session. Two prices now frame the tape: the $135 the IPO buyers paid, and whatever the unlocked holders will take.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prices are daily closes from Yahoo Finance. SPCX has 37 sessions of history, so the 50- and 200-day averages do not exist yet and every statistic here is early.

07 — The Call

Final assessment

Expected value says accumulate; the calendar says be slow about it.

ACCUMULATE · SLOWLY

Start small into the unlock and let the sellers set your average; the expected value is positive but the next month belongs to supply.

CONVICTIONMedium

12-mo Base Target

$150

+39% from $108.27

Odds-weighted Value

$164

across bull, base and bear

vs IPO Price

-20%

priced at $135 on June 11

2027E P/S

19.5x

on the street's $73.15B revenue estimate

What you get at $108 is three real businesses growing 92% blended, roughly $100B of cash, a $47.5B backlog and the only launch system on Earth that matters to NASA, the Pentagon and two AI labs at once. What you pay is 19.5x next year's street revenue for a company that still loses money, spends 2.4x its revenue on capex, and is run by a CEO whose public run-rate target is more than double what the street models for the year. The first print beat everything and the stock still made an all-time low, because the market has started underwriting the spending instead of the dream.

Thirty-seven trading days is not a track record, and this brief treats it that way: the call rests on the reported quarter, the contracts and the cash, not on chart history that does not exist yet. Today's unlock converts the biggest known risk into a price. Start a position slowly through the supply, add only as the post-unlock tape stabilizes and the October cloud ramp shows up in numbers, and size the whole thing for the promise gap rather than the backlog.

▲ WHAT PUSHES US MORE BULLISH

The unlock clears quietly A quadrupled float absorbed without new lows would remove the single biggest near-term overhang and prove real demand at these prices.
The October ramp shows up The $6.7B contracted cloud slice starts billing in Q4; visible progress toward the $100B run-rate would flip the promise gap from risk to upside.
Flight 14 catches A successful upper-stage catch this month, with V3 satellites deploying at scale, moves Starship from experiment to cost curve and funds the whole 2027 roadmap.
Starlink holds its slope Another 1.5M-plus net-add quarter keeps the doubling story intact against a $600B incumbent telecom pool.

▼ WHAT FLIPS US CAUTIOUS

Secondary supply keeps coming Follow-on offerings or sustained insider selling after today would turn a one-day unlock into a standing overhang.
Capex guides higher again Another quarter of spending at 2x-plus revenue without matching contracted demand shortens the runway and raises the dilution question.
The run-rate promise slips Walking back $100B by year-end would hit the multiple harder than any single metric; this stock trades on kept promises.
A tenant walks Anthropic or Google in-sourcing or renegotiating compute would hit the fastest-growing segment first and hardest.
Starship fails loudly A Flight 14 failure pauses the catch program, the V3 constellation and the orbital data-center roadmap in one stroke.

This brief is one analyst's opinion, produced for research and education. It is not financial advice and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All figures are as of 2026-08-06 unless dated otherwise, and every claim traces to the sources listed on this page. SpaceX has been public for 37 trading sessions, so treat every statistic drawn from its stock history as early. Do your own work.

Sources · 18