MACRO BRIEFS

The week ahead, one red folder at a time.

Every high-impact release on the economic calendar — forecast, context and the scenarios that move rates, FX and risk — plus positioning and yields.

Deep dives

MACRO DEEP DIVE

Not in Washington

Democrats took both chambers of Congress on November 3, but without a filibuster-proof Senate, and facing a president who has said he will turn into “Mr Veto,” the laws that would reshape banks and AI mostly stay where they are. The power that did move went to three places: the committee gavels, the Texas governor's mansion and the balance sheets of the banks carrying a $15 billion data-center loan. This is the route from the ballot to the balance sheet, and the dates that decide it.

2026-11-04 · 13 min read

MACRO DEEP DIVE

Circular Reference

Nvidia's default insurance now costs more than its customers'. Bloomberg reported the CDS at 83 basis points, called it “not a now story”, and moved on. This is the story it points at: falling token prices, hyperscalers spending cash they don't generate, and a chipmaker guaranteeing the leases of the people who buy from it. Nvidia is the lens; the subject is how the AI boom is financed, and who ends up carrying the risk.

2026-09-02 · 12 min read

MACRO DEEP DIVE

Four Billion Against Forty Trillion

On 19 August 2026, two days after the 30-year closed at a 19-year high, the Treasury doubled its long-end buyback caps mid-quarter. The relief lasted one trading session. Anatomy of an intervention the market sent back, and of what a buyback can and cannot do.

2026-09-01 · 12 min read

MACRO DEEP DIVE

The Day Oil Cost Less Than Nothing

On 20 April 2020 the May WTI future settled at −$37.63 a barrel while the June future, the same oil one month later, settled at $20.43. What went negative was not oil. It was a delivery obligation at a hub with no tank space left. Anatomy of the first negative settlement in the contract’s history.

2026-08-30 · 12 min read

MACRO DEEP DIVE

The Term Premium Is Back

The ACM 10-year term premium added 38bp between 30 June and 17 August while the expected-rate leg fell 6bp: this is what changed in the supply, the buyer base and the policy regime behind that seven-week window.

2026-08-26 · 13 min read